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While inflation is starting to ease in economies around the world, there are still signs of economic challenges ahead. Read on to find out what affected investment markets in November 2023.

UK

In November, chancellor Jeremy Hunt delivered the Autumn Statement. Despite media suggestions that Inheritance Tax would be abolished, the biggest announcement was a cut to National Insurance rates for employees and self-employed workers.

While the Autumn Statement contained 110 measures, there were few surprises and the markets remained largely unmoved.

Key figures paint a mixed picture in the UK.

On one hand, inflation fell sharply in the 12 months to October 2023 to 4.6%, compared to 6.7% in September. On the other hand, data from the Office of National Statistics show the UK economy posted zero growth in the third quarter of 2023 following growth of just 0.2% in the second quarter.

Despite inflation falling, the Bank of England (BoE) opted to leave interest rates where they are at 5.25% rather than cut them. The markets rallied at the news interest rates may have peaked – the FTSE 250 share index jumped by 3% following the BoE announcement on 2 November.

While slowing inflation is a step in the right direction, the BoE warned there was still a 50-50 chance the UK would be in a recession by mid-2024.

Figures suggest both households and businesses are struggling to service debt due to higher interest rates.

UK Finance statistics show the number of mortgages in arrears is rising. The number of mortgage holders that are behind with their repayments increased by 7% between July and September, when compared to three months earlier. This figure was partly fuelled by buy-to-let mortgages as the number of landlords falling into arrears jumped by 29% over the same period.

In October, business insolvencies were also up 18% when compared to a year earlier. The rise was linked to weak consumer demand and high interest rates.

Further figures indicate businesses across numerous sectors could be facing headwinds. S&P’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data found:

  • UK factory output has now declined for the longest period since 2008/09 and, for the 13th consecutive month, firms cut jobs.
  • Optimism in the service sector fell to the lowest level so far this year and the PMI was 49.5, just below the 50 mark that indicates contraction.
  • Fewer housebuilding projects were linked to construction output falling further.

The mixed picture of economic data was also reflected in company updates.

Tata Steel confirmed the closure of its steelworks in Port Talbot at the start of the month. The news followed the company’s financial reports showing the firm made a loss of £135 million between July and September.

In contrast, despite pressure on the high street, Marks & Spencer was reported to be the biggest riser on the FTSE 100 index when shares soared 7% on 8 November. The boost followed a huge 75% jump in pre-tax profits to £360 million for the 26 weeks to 30 September 2023.

Europe

The European Commission (EC) once again cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone. It now expects the economy to grow by 0.6% in 2023, compared to its earlier forecast of 0.8%. The EC said the economy had lost its momentum due to rising interest rates and the cost of living squeeze affecting household spending.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also warned that banks could face challenges. An ECB report suggests banks were showing “early signs of stress” after a rise in loan defaults and late payments.

PMI data indicates that factories across the eurozone have faced a “considerable” fall in production levels and the decline in new orders is accelerating.

While often being viewed as the powerhouse of the eurozone, Germany hasn’t escaped the slump.

There are concerns that Germany is teetering on a recession. Financial institution ING warned that the country would likely be in a technical recession by the end of 2023. Industrial output in Germany is still 7% below its pre-pandemic level thanks to weak demand.

The decision of Danish shipping giant Maersk to axe 10,000 jobs after posting a steep drop in profits highlights the challenges businesses are facing. The firm said slow global economic growth and destocking after the pandemic are affecting demands for shipping containers by sea.

US

US inflation fell at a quicker pace than expected in the 12 months to October 2023. The figure was 3.2% and slowly nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

While the inflation statistic is positive, other data from the US may signal challenges ahead for businesses.

The US economy added 150,000 jobs in October, which fell below the 180,000 economists had expected. In addition, unemployment figures increased slightly from 3.8% to 3.9% when compared to a month earlier.

Weak consumer demand is also affecting the US. The country’s trade deficit increased by almost 5% in September as it imported more goods than it exported. The goods deficit climbed by $1.7 billion (£1.4 billion) to $86.3 billion (£68.29 billion).

Some businesses are performing well though, notably Microsoft. The company’s shares reached a record high of $377.1 (£266.76) on 20 November to extend its gains for this year by more than 55%.

Contact us to talk about your investments

When investing, remember to focus on your long-term plan and goals. It could help you select investments that are right for you. If you’d like to talk about your portfolio and whether it suits your needs, please contact us.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

When you’re making decisions, cost might be an important factor, but value could be just as crucial. Balancing cost and value in your financial plan could help you get more out of your money.

When talking about the investment market, Warren Buffett, known as one of the world’s most successful investors, once said: “Price is what you pay; value is what you get.”

It’s a definition that can be applied outside of investing to other aspects of financial planning too.

How to measure the value of an item or service

The cost of goods or services is usually easy to assess by looking at the price. Determining value could be more difficult. Yet, it may be an important task so you can make decisions that are right for you.

To calculate the value of an item or service you might need to consider quality or performance. In addition, your needs will affect the value too. So, your view of how valuable a particular item is could be different to someone else’s.

Deciding the value of an item is something you probably already do when you’re making large purchases.

If you’re buying a new TV, as well as looking at the price tag, you might assess the type of screen technology it has or whether it boasts smart features. You may also consider the quality of the brand or read reviews from other customers.

The process of balancing cost and value may be similar when you’re making financial decisions.

Let’s say you have a lump sum that you’d like to invest through a fund. How do you determine which option is right for you?

When reviewing an investment fund, the cost, such as the management fees, may factor into your decision. When you’re weighing up value, you might want to consider questions like:

  • What are the projected returns?
  • How has it performed in the past?
  • Does the risk profile suit my needs?
  • Could I access the money when I need to?

A fund that has a low management fee might be attractive, but if the risk profile doesn’t align with your investment strategy, it may be of low value to you. Or a higher cost could be worthwhile if the fund may deliver higher returns over your investment time frame.

So, balancing cost and value could help your money go further and ensure your decisions align with your financial plan.

Remember, investment returns cannot be guaranteed, and all investments carry some risk. When you’re deciding if an investment opportunity is right for you, considering your risk profile and investment goals may be useful.

Financial planning could add value by boosting your finances and wellbeing

Value is important when assessing the benefits of financial planning as well, and it’s not just your finances that could receive a boost but your emotional wellbeing too.

The monetary benefits of financial planning could outweigh the cost

Many people seeking a financial planner do so because they want to understand how to grow their wealth and ensure they’re on track to reach long-term goals. The good news is research indicates those working with a financial planner could benefit financially.

According to an Unbiased report, those who seek advice about their pension at the start of their careers could look forward to a retirement that offers more financial freedom.

The table above shows how the initial cost of seeking advice could be returned many times over when you look at the long-term benefits. So, for some people, the long-term financial value could outweigh the cost.

Financial planning could add value by improving your wellbeing

While the financial benefit of seeking professional advice is important, research suggests the positive effect it can have on your wellbeing could be just as valuable.

In fact, a study published in Professional Adviser asked people with more than £300,000 of investable assets about the benefits of financial planning, and the results might surprise you. More than half of survey respondents said one of the key reasons they use a financial planner is the peace of mind it provides.

There are other non-financial benefits of working with a financial planner too. You might appreciate the time saved by having someone manage your finances on your behalf so you can focus on what’s most important to you. Or a financial planner could help you focus on your long-term goals.

Contact us to talk about your financial plan

Financial planning could add value to your life by helping you get more out of your money and feel confident about your finances. We’ll work with you to create a tailored plan that suits your goals and address any concerns you might have.

If you’d like to arrange a meeting to talk to us about your finances, please get in touch.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits. The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances, tax legislation and regulation, which are subject to change in the future.

A survey suggests more than half of people aged over 75 haven’t arranged a Lasting Power of Attorney (LPA). It’s an oversight that could mean their families may not be able to make decisions on their behalf if they lost mental capacity.

MoneyAge report that research from Just Group revealed that around 3.4 million over-75s had no LPA in place. If you or your relatives may be among them, read on to find out what an LPA is and why having one may bring invaluable peace of mind to you and your family.

An LPA allows you to choose someone you trust to take care of your affairs

An LPA is a legal document that allows you to nominate one or more people you know and trust to take care of your affairs in the event that you can no longer look after them yourself.

There are two types of LPA:

  1. A health and welfare LPA that covers your day-to-day life and any medical decisions or care you need.
  2. A property and financial affairs LPA that covers the management of your savings and assets, paying bills, and claiming benefits.

If you don’t have a health and welfare LPA, your loved ones could be prevented from ensuring you receive medical care according to your wishes.

Lack of a property and financial affairs LPA will likely mean that your family will be unable to manage things like paying your bills or bank accounts.

Without an appropriate LPA in place, even your partner or spouse may not automatically be able to gain access to your investments, insurance, or your bank accounts.

Once registered, an LPA remains in place for life, bringing immeasurable peace of mind to both you and your loved ones.

It’s also possible to make an LPA temporary. A temporary LPA allows you to resume control of your affairs if your capacity improves. This can be particularly useful if you are briefly hospitalised due to an accident or illness.

If you begin to lose your mental capacity, it may be too late to set up an LPA

If you become incapacitated without an LPA in place, you could leave your family with the burden of applying for permission to take care of your affairs. At an already difficult time, they will have to apply to the Court of Protection to become a deputy.

Doing this can be time-consuming and expensive. Plus, the judge will decide who is most suitable to make decisions for you, meaning it may not be the person you would choose.

With a registered LPA in place, your attorney can begin managing your affairs immediately after you become incapacitated. This should mean that there’s no delay in your attorney being able to access financial resources or make critical decisions relating to your health.

Remember, if you lose mental capacity, it would be too late to put an LPA in place. With this in mind, it’s something that you should consider organising sooner rather than later.

The 2023 Power of Attorney act will make it easier to put an LPA in place

On 18 September 2023, the Powers of Attorney Bill received Royal Assent and became an Act of Parliament. This means that the existing paper-based system will move online.

It is hoped that the move to an online system will create a simpler process, making it quicker and easier to register.

The new service will change the way LPAs are made but, for the time being, the current LPA service will continue to be available as usual.

Get in touch to discuss how we can help you set up a Lasting Power of Attorney

Putting an LPA in place could provide you with security if you lose the ability to make decisions yourself. If you want to know more about looking after yourself and your loved ones in the future, speak to us.

Please contact us to talk about your concerns and priorities. We’ll work with you to create an estate plan that suits your needs.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning.

Jeremy Hunt delivered his second Autumn Statement as chancellor on 22 November 2023. While the headline news was cuts to National Insurance rates for employees and self-employed workers, there may have been less attention-grabbing changes that could make your finances easier to manage.

Read on to discover how ISA and pension changes might be useful to you.

1. ISAs are set to become simpler

ISAs were launched in 1999 to promote saving and investing in a tax-efficient way. Statistics suggest they’ve achieved that goal – according to the government, in 2021/22, 11.8 million ISAs were subscribed to, with around £66.9 billion added to accounts.

Yet, over the years, ISAs have become more complicated. New ISAs have been launched, including the Lifetime ISA, aimed at aspiring first-time buyers, and the Innovative Finance ISA, which allows you to invest in peer-to-peer loans that are typically higher-risk than traditional investments.

There are also rules around contributing to multiple ISAs during the same tax year and transferring between different providers. Key changes from April 2024 could help you manage your savings and investments in a way that suits you.

  • Under current rules, you cannot usually contribute to two ISAs of the same type during the same tax year. For example, if you held two Cash ISAs, you’d only be able to contribute to one each year. From April 2024, you will have more flexibility and will be able to pay into multiple ISAs of the same type. This could mean you’re able to secure a more competitive interest rate or pay into both an easy access and fixed-term account.
  • It is possible to transfer your ISA savings or investments to another provider. However, you must transfer all the money in the account. In the new tax year, partial transfers will be allowed. This step could provide you with more flexibility and the option to move your savings or investments to suit your needs.

Despite hopes that the annual ISA allowance would be increased, it wasn’t announced in the Autumn Statement. In 2023/24, the ISA allowance is £20,000, and £9,000 for Junior ISAs.

However, the changes could help you get more out of your money by allowing you to select a provider that’s right for you.

2. There are plans to reduce the number of pensions workers hold

Auto-enrolment means the majority of employees must be automatically enrolled into a pension by their employer, who must also contribute on their behalf.

It’s successfully encouraged more people to save for their retirement. Yet, it’s also created a retirement planning issue that you might face – managing multiple pension pots.

According to Zippia, the average employee stays with their employer for just 4.3 years. So, over your working life, you could end up accumulating multiple pensions.

This could cause issues for several reasons:

  • It can make your retirement savings difficult to keep track of. Indeed, a report in FTAdviser, estimates there are almost 3 million “lost pensions” totalling £26.6 billion. Managing several pensions could mean you overlook some essential savings.
  • Usually, your pension will be subject to an annual management fee. In some cases, paying fees on several small pensions could add up to more than the fee of a single, larger pension. So, holding several pensions may mean you get less out of your savings.
  • Similarly, your pension will typically be invested. Again, a single, large pension that’s invested in a range of assets may deliver greater returns over the long term, particularly when investment fees are considered, compared to several small pots. However, keep in mind that investment returns cannot be guaranteed.
  • As well as difficulty managing multiple pots during your working life, it can be challenging when you retire too. You might be unsure about which pot you should access first or how long each will last.

Changes to address this haven’t been implemented yet. However, Hunt announced a consultation with the aim of allowing workers to set up a “pot for life”. Under the plans, employees would be able to choose which pot their pension contributions are paid into. It could mean employees can retain the same pot throughout their careers, even when they change jobs.

The move could make it easier to manage your retirement finances.

If multiple small pensions are something you’re concerned about, there may be steps you can take now. Pension consolidation could mean you have fewer pensions to manage, but there are potential drawbacks too. For example, if your pension provides additional benefits, you’d lose these if you transferred the money to another provider.

We can provide tailored pension advice if you’d like to better understand how to make managing your retirement finances simpler. 

Contact us to discuss what the Autumn Statement means for your financial plan

The chancellor made key announcements during the Autumn Statement that might affect your finances now or in the future. If you’d like to discuss what they mean for you, please contact us.

Please note: This article is for information only. Please do not act based on anything you might read in this article. All contents are based on our understanding of HMRC legislation, which is subject to change.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A pension is a long-term investment. The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Your pension income could also be affected by the interest rates at the time you take your benefits.

Some pension savers may have unwittingly exceeded a tax allowance and could now face a higher bill, figures suggest. According to HMRC data, the number of people exceeding the Annual Allowance increased by almost 20% in 2021/22 when compared to just a year earlier.

The HMRC figures show more than 53,000 people contributed more to their pension than the Annual Allowance in 2021/22. They may unexpectedly pay more Income Tax as a result.

A pension is a tax-efficient way to save for your retirement. However, it’s important to be aware of the Annual Allowance and how exceeding it could mean you’re liable for more Income Tax than you expect. Read on to find out what you need to know.

The pension Annual Allowance is up to £60,000 in 2023/24

When you place money into a pension, you receive tax relief. This means some of the money you’ve paid in tax goes into your pension to encourage you to save for your future. Tax relief is usually based on the rate of Income Tax you pay.

If you’re a basic-rate taxpayer, your pension provider will generally claim the tax relief on your behalf. If you’re a higher- or additional-rate taxpayer, you’ll need to complete a self-assessment tax return to claim the full amount you’re entitled to.

The Annual Allowance covers all contributions going into your pension, including those made by your employer or other parties. The Annual Allowance is the limit for tax-efficient contributions, and you typically receive tax relief on contributions up to this threshold.

For most people, the pension Annual Allowance is £60,000 in 2023/24. However, you can only receive tax relief up to 100% of your annual earnings.

There are some circumstances where your Annual Allowance may be lower:

  • If you have already taken an income from your pension, you could be subject to the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA). For the 2023/24 tax year, the MPAA is £10,000.
  • High earners may be affected by the Tapered Annual Allowance. In 2023/24, if your “adjusted income” – your total income including money you and your employer contribute to your pension – is above £260,000, your Annual Allowance will fall by £1 for every £2 it exceeds this threshold. The maximum reduction is £50,000. So, if your adjusted income is £360,000 a year or more, your Annual Allowance would be £10,000.

If you’re unsure if you’re affected by the MPAA or Tapered Annual Allowance, please contact us.

It might also be useful to keep in mind that you can carry forward unused Annual Allowance for up to three years, after which it is lost. So, keeping track of your pension contributions for each tax year could help you save more tax-efficiently into your pension.

You could face a tax charge if you exceed the Annual Allowance

If you exceed the Annual Allowance, you will be faced with a charge – the amount contributed to your pension that is above the Annual Allowance will be added to your other taxable income. As a result, your Income Tax bill might be higher than you anticipate.

In some cases, you may be able to ask your pension scheme to pay the charge from your pension. This means your income wouldn’t be affected but the value of your pension would be reduced. However, this isn’t always an option.

If you’ve unwittingly exceeded the Annual Allowance, it may be worth reviewing your pension contributions for previous tax years. You may be able to reduce or avoid a tax charge by carrying forward unused allowances. 

A financial plan could help you avoid unexpected tax bills

Keeping track of your pension contributions can be difficult. After all, they’re often deducted from your income automatically, and you might want to make additional contributions too. So, it could be easier than you think to accidentally exceed the threshold.

A financial plan may help you manage your tax liability and avoid a potential charge by setting out your contribution plans. Reviewing your plan regularly can help you factor in changes to your circumstances, such as the effect of a higher income or using a lump sum to boost retirement savings.

Not only that, but a financial plan could also help you align your pension with your retirement plans.

It’s not just the Annual Allowance you need to keep in mind to get the most out of your pension and reach your retirement goals, either. You might also want to consider what income your pension could deliver in retirement, how it’s invested, and whether you’re claiming all the tax relief you’re entitled to.

We can work with you to create a retirement plan that suits your circumstances and aspirations, including how to use your pension to save tax-efficiently.

Please contact us to arrange a meeting to talk about your goals and how you may use your assets to reach them.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances. Thresholds, percentage rates and tax legislation may change in subsequent Finance Acts. 

Financial reviews provide you with a chance to ensure your financial decisions continue to reflect your goals and circumstances, and to assess if you’re on track. They could also be a useful way to reduce behavioural bias.

Over the last few months, you’ve read about why financial reviews are important and why you may need to update your plan following one. Now, read on to discover why they could help you make better financial decisions. 

Behavioural bias could mean you make financial decisions that aren’t right for you

Behavioural bias refers to beliefs or behaviours that unconsciously influence your decision-making. It’s something you do every day, and it helps you make decisions quickly. For instance, you might give little thought to which way you’ll drive to the office or what you’ll eat for breakfast.

However, bias could lead to mistakes as you might be basing your decisions on faulty reasoning or emotions rather than facts. 

When you’re making large financial decisions, like where to invest a lump sum or how much of your pension to withdraw, eliminating bias might lead to better outcomes.

Let’s say you have some money to invest. You overhear several co-workers chatting about how they’ve all invested money into a tech company that’s sure to deliver “huge returns” or become the “next Google”. You might feel excited about the opportunity everyone seems to be talking about, or worried that if you don’t invest right now, you’ll miss out. So, you decide to invest your money based on a bias sometimes referred to as “herd mentality”.

Yet, if you delved deeper or looked at the bigger picture you might find that the investment isn’t right for you. It could be a high-risk investment that doesn’t suit your risk profile, or the investment time frame isn’t right for your goals.

If you plunged ahead and invested your money without research, you could later find you’ve made a mistake because you’ve acted on bias.

There are steps you can take to reduce the effect bias has on your financial decisions, including giving yourself time to fully review options and recognising when emotions are influencing your views.

This is something financial reviews may help with too. Here’s how.

1. You may be less likely to make impulsive decisions

Regular financial reviews mean you can keep track of how you’re progressing towards goals, which could lead to you feeling more comfortable taking your time to review all the options.

While bias can affect any decisions you make, you’re more likely to recognise its potential influence if you’re not making a snap judgement. With more time, your emotions will change, and this might alter how you view an investment or other financial decision. Or you could have an opportunity to carry out research and find that your initial assumptions were inaccurate.

By reducing impulsive decisions, you could limit the effect unconscious bias has on your finances.

2. You may be in a better position to assess what’s right for you

Financial planning isn’t just about growing your wealth but understanding what’s right for you. As part of your financial reviews, you might talk about your investment risk profile, long-term goals, and more. It means you could develop a better understanding of different financial opportunities and how they fit into your wider plan.

So, following a financial review, you might feel more comfortable bypassing an investment opportunity that at first seems like a “must buy” because you know it’s not right for you.

3. You’ll have someone to turn to when you have financial questions

Sometimes, having someone to talk to is all you need to recognise bias in your financial decisions. Having another person look over an opportunity you’re interested in could give you a different perspective.

Working with a financial planner on an ongoing basis means you have someone you can turn to when you’re thinking about making changes to your financial plan. We could help you assess how the potential changes may affect your long-term finances and fit your goals.

Please contact us if you’d like to review your financial plan or talk to us about how we could help you manage your finances.

Please note: This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.